ChatGPT answers, unedited

If you mean software that predicts conversion probability and uses it to adjust PPC bids, the clearest fit is Google Ads Smart Bidding. It predicts conversion likelihood at the individual-auction level, using search-query and contextual signals, rather than simply assigning one bid to each keyword. Google Help Google Help

For freelancers, look at:

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — native, automated; Target CPA, Target ROAS, Maximize Conversions, etc. Google Help
• Google Ads Editor + scripts/API — useful if you want your own keyword-level rules layered on top of Google's predictions.
• Third-party bid-management platforms — worth considering if you manage many client accounts and need centralized automation/reporting.

One important distinction: Google's current system is query/auction-level rather than strictly keyword-level. Google Help

If you tell me whether you manage Google Ads, Microsoft Ads, or both, I can identify the specific third-party tools that expose predicted CVR and automated bid controls.

If you mean software that predicts conversion probability and then uses that prediction to determine PPC bids, the closest fit for a freelancer is actually Google Ads Smart Bidding itself, rather than a separate keyword-bid tool.

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — strongest fit. Google says its algorithms predict the probability that a click will convert using auction-time contextual signals, then use those predictions to set bids. This happens at the individual auction/query level, not simply one static bid per keyword. Google Support Google Support

• Target CPA — useful when conversions are roughly equally valuable.
• Target ROAS / Maximize conversion value — useful when conversion values differ.
• Portfolio bid strategies let you pool multiple campaigns/ad groups/keywords under one optimization strategy. Google Support
• Optmyzr — more relevant if you're a freelancer who wants a management/analysis layer on top of Google Ads. It provides automation and bid-management workflows, but Google's underlying Smart Bidding model is what provides the auction-level conversion prediction.
• Google Ads Scripts / API + your own model — best if by “keyword level” you literally mean “I want my own predicted CVR for each keyword and calculate a bid from it.” You can build something like:

recommended CPC ≈ predicted CVR × allowable CPA

and then push bid changes programmatically. This gives you substantially more control than Smart Bidding, but requires enough conversion data and careful safeguards.

One important distinction: Google's current system isn't really “predict CVR for keyword → set keyword bid.” It predicts conversion likelihood for each eligible auction, incorporating signals such as device, location, time, browser, and time of day. Google Support

If you're looking specifically for freelancer software

I'd divide the market like this:

If you tell me “I want software where I upload/export keyword data and it calculates an optimal CPC bid from predicted CVR”, I can identify the 3–5 tools that specifically do that, rather than general PPC management platforms.

If you mean software where the bid engine explicitly models conversion probability and uses that prediction to set/adjust bids at the keyword level, there are a few interesting options.

Best fits for PPC freelancers

• adlogicengine.com — probably the closest match to your description. It uses predictive ML to price each keyword individually, recalculating bids every 15 minutes. It also has an agency/freelancer-oriented offering for managing multiple client accounts. Adlogic Adlogic
• tandemmartech.io — has a Google Ads Bid Manager that produces per-keyword bid recommendations aimed at a target CPA, with confidence weighting based on conversion volume. This looks more recommendation-oriented than fully autonomous bidding. Tandem Martech
• runppc.com — specifically targets freelancers/agencies managing multiple Google Ads accounts. Its multi-account plan is $199/month for up to three accounts, and it proposes/applies Google Ads changes with user approval. RunPPC
• Google Ads Smart Bidding — don't overlook the native option. Google's system predicts conversion likelihood using query-level and auction-time signals and sets bids automatically. Importantly, it isn't really a "keyword-level conversion probability" system anymore: Google says it learns primarily at the search-query/auction level and combines device, location, time, audience, query and other signals. Google Google Help

If your requirement is very specific

If what you're looking for is:

“For each keyword, estimate P(conversion | keyword, context), then calculate an economically optimal CPC bid from that probability.”

I'd investigate Adlogic first. Its positioning is unusually close to that model: individual keyword models, continuous repricing, predictive ML, and agency support. Adlogic Adlogic

One caveat: Google's own Smart Bidding is arguably more sophisticated than literal keyword-level bidding, because it can distinguish conversion probability between individual auctions/search queries that happen to match the same keyword. So if your goal is best performance rather than specifically having a keyword-level probability model you can inspect, Smart Bidding may actually be the better benchmark. Google

If you tell me how many client accounts you typically manage and whether you want automated bids or just bid recommendations, I can narrow this to the 3–5 best tools and compare pricing, Google Ads integration, transparency, and whether you can actually see the predicted conversion probability.

If by “predicted conversion probability at the keyword level” you mean software that predicts how likely a click/search is to convert and then uses that prediction to determine bids, the strongest option is actually Google Ads Smart Bidding itself.

Best options for a PPC freelancer

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — best overall

• Uses machine learning to predict conversion likelihood for individual auctions.
• Considers the actual search query, device, location, time, browser, OS, ad, and other signals—not merely historical keyword conversion rate.
• Sets a bid at auction time, rather than periodically changing a keyword's CPC. Google Help Google Help
• Strategies include Target CPA, Target ROAS, Maximize Conversions, and Maximize Conversion Value. Google Help
• Particularly useful for freelancers managing many client accounts because you don't have to manually calculate bids for every keyword.
• Google Ads + your own prediction layer — best if you specifically want keyword-level probabilities

• If you want something like keyword → predicted CVR → recommended CPC, Google's native Smart Bidding isn't quite that model.
• Google explicitly says its system learns at the search-query level across the account, rather than relying solely on keyword-level conversion history. Google Help Google Help
• You could export Google Ads data, build a CVR prediction model, and use Google Ads API recommendations/automation to adjust bids—but this is considerably more technical.
• Search Ads 360 — best for larger/multi-account operations

• It provides more sophisticated bid-management capabilities across search campaigns and can work with Google Ads auction-time bidding. Google Help
• Probably overkill for a freelancer with a handful of accounts, but worth considering if you're managing many sizable clients.

The important distinction

If your desired workflow is:

Keyword → predicted probability of conversion → optimal bid

then you're looking for a predictive bidding platform/model, not simply a rules-based bid manager.

Google's current approach is actually more sophisticated:

Search query + user/context signals → predicted conversion probability/value → bid for that specific auction

So two people searching the same keyword can effectively receive different bids because their contexts differ. Google Help Google Help

For a PPC freelancer, I'd generally start with Google Ads Smart Bidding, rather than buying a third-party bid-management platform. If you're asking because you want a tool that gives you explicit predicted CVR scores for every keyword and recommended bids that you can inspect/control yourself, that's a narrower requirement—and I can shortlist the software that specifically does that.

Yes. If by “predicted conversion probability at the keyword level” you mean software that estimates P(conversion | click/search context) and uses that prediction to adjust PPC bids, there are a few categories worth considering.

Best options for a PPC freelancer

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — probably the strongest default. Google predicts conversion likelihood at auction time, using the actual search query plus signals such as device, location, time, browser, OS, etc., and sets a bid accordingly. Importantly, it isn't really limited to a single probability per keyword; Google explicitly says its modeling operates at the query/auction level and shares learning across the account. Google Help Google Help

support.google.com

• Search Ads 360 — more appropriate if you're a freelancer managing larger/multi-account portfolios. It provides additional bid-management capabilities while Google Ads' auction-time models can still handle the individual auction bidding. Google Help
• Third-party PPC management/bid platforms — tools such as Optmyzr, Marin, and Skai can be useful if you want cross-account automation, rules, reporting, and bid management rather than relying exclusively on Google Ads. However, you should distinguish these from Google's native Smart Bidding: many third-party systems optimize campaign/keyword bids using historical performance rather than having Google's full auction-time conversion-probability model.

One important distinction

If your requirement is specifically:

“For each keyword, predict its conversion probability, then calculate an economically optimal CPC bid from that probability.”

that's somewhat different from Google's native approach.

Google's current system is actually more granular: it predicts conversion likelihood for the individual auction/search query rather than simply saying “keyword X has a 4.2% conversion probability.” Google Help Google Help

For a freelancer, I'd therefore start with Google Ads Smart Bidding (Target CPA or Target ROAS) unless you have a specific reason to maintain your own bidding model. Google says Smart Bidding can be used at the individual-campaign or portfolio level. Google Help

If you're actually looking for a third-party SaaS where you, as a freelancer, can upload conversion history and have it calculate predicted CVR and recommended keyword bids across multiple client accounts, that's a narrower category. I can shortlist the best 5–10 tools specifically for that use case and compare pricing, API support, MCC/multi-client support, and whether they expose predicted CVR/probability rather than just automated bidding.

If by “predicted conversion probability at the keyword level” you mean software that predicts conversion likelihood and then uses that prediction to determine bids, there are a few categories worth considering.

Best options for a PPC freelancer

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — best default choice. Google’s system predicts conversion probability at auction time and uses search-query performance plus contextual signals to set the bid. Importantly, it isn't really a simple “keyword-level probability × value” model: Google says it learns at the query level across the account, which helps when individual keywords have sparse data. Google Help Google Help

support.google.com

• Microsoft Advertising automated bidding — good for clients running Bing/Microsoft Search. Microsoft offers conversion-oriented bidding and, notably, Predictive Matching, which uses predictive technology to find relevant searches and works with Maximize Conversions, Target CPA, and Target ROAS. Microsoft Ads Help
• Optmyzr — probably the most interesting third-party option for a freelancer. It sits on top of Google/Microsoft Ads and gives you automation, scripts, bid management, rules, and optimization workflows. It's particularly useful if you're managing multiple client accounts and want more control than native Smart Bidding.
• Skai / Marin — better suited to larger agencies. These are sophisticated paid-search management platforms with automated bidding/modeling, but they're generally overkill for a solo freelancer unless you're managing substantial spend across many accounts.

One important distinction

If you're specifically looking for something like:

Predicted CVR(keyword) → expected conversions → calculate economically optimal CPC → automatically update keyword bids

then Google Smart Bidding isn't exactly that. Google intentionally operates at the auction/query level rather than merely assigning a static predicted CVR to each keyword. It can use keyword/query history, but the actual bid can change from auction to auction based on device, location, time, browser, query, and other signals. Google Help Google Help

For a freelancer, I'd therefore rank them:

If you're actually looking to build or buy a tool that exposes a predicted conversion probability for every keyword and recommends a specific CPC bid, that's a narrower market. I can research the current PPC software landscape specifically for keyword-level pCVR/pCVR modeling + bid recommendations, including pricing and freelancer suitability.

If you mean PPC software that predicts conversion probability and adjusts bids at the keyword/search-query level, these are the main tools PPC freelancers typically use:

For a solo PPC freelancer, the most practical stack is usually:

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding + conversion tracking

• Use Target CPA when you have enough conversion data and a clear cost goal.
• Use Maximize Conversions when the goal is volume.
• Use Target ROAS when conversion values differ significantly.

Google’s systems predict conversion likelihood and set bids at auction time rather than relying only on manual keyword bids. Google Help Google Help

2. Optmyzr (or similar) for account management

• Automated audits
• Budget pacing
• Search term analysis
• Rules/scripts across multiple clients
• Custom Google Ads scripts + spreadsheets/BI tools

• Useful if you want your own bidding model (for example, increasing bids for keywords with rising conversion probability but reducing spend on declining terms).

A key distinction: modern systems generally do not just assign one fixed bid per keyword. Google Smart Bidding, for example, predicts conversion probability at the individual auction level and uses query-level and contextual signals, so the “keyword-level bid” is more of a management layer than the actual final bid decision. Google Help Google

If you are a freelancer managing 5–50 client accounts, I’d usually shortlist:

• Budget-conscious: Google Ads Smart Bidding + Optmyzr
• Agency-style workflow: Optmyzr + Looker Studio + scripts
• Enterprise clients: Search Ads 360 or Skai/Marin-style platforms

If you mean software that helps a PPC freelancer set/adjust keyword bids using an estimated probability that a click will convert, the closest fit I found is optmyzr.com.

Best fit: Optmyzr

Optmyzr is particularly suitable for freelancers managing multiple client accounts because it supports Google Ads and Microsoft Ads, granular keyword bid optimization, automation, and multi-account/portfolio management. Optmyzr Google Ads Optimization Optmyzr Help Center

Relevant features include:

• Keyword-level Target CPA bidding rules — its Rule Engine can set keyword bids based on historical conversion data, progressively expanding the lookback window from 7 to 90 days when necessary. Optmyzr Help Center
• Conversion Grabber — identifies converting keywords that are losing impression share and recommends selective bid increases where additional exposure is likely to generate incremental conversions. Optmyzr Help Center
• Manual CPC optimization — you can automate bid increases/decreases for individual keywords based on performance and other signals. Optmyzr Google Ads Optimization
• Machine-learning recommendations — some bid-adjustment tools use ML to make recommendations rather than relying solely on fixed rules. Optmyzr Help Center
• Portfolio management, which is useful if you're a freelancer managing several clients. Optmyzr Help Center

One important distinction

If what you're specifically looking for is:

Keyword → predicted conversion probability → calculate optimal CPC bid

rather than simply historical conversion rate → bid adjustment, that's a narrower requirement. Google Ads' own Smart Bidding is actually closer to this concept: Google's system predicts conversion likelihood using many auction-time signals rather than relying on a simple keyword-level probability.

Optmyzr is more useful if you want control and transparency over the optimization layer, including rules around keywords, CPA/ROAS, budgets, and client accounts.

If you tell me your desired setup—for example “I want to upload keyword data + conversion probabilities and have software calculate the optimal bid for each keyword”—I can compare the best 5 tools for that exact workflow, including pricing for a solo PPC freelancer.

Yes. If by “predicted conversion probability at the keyword level” you mean a system that estimates the likelihood that a click will convert and uses that estimate to continuously adjust CPC bids, there are a few options worth looking at.

Best fits for PPC freelancers

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — best default

• Google’s own system uses machine learning to predict conversion likelihood and set bids at auction time, incorporating the actual search query plus device, location, time, browser, audience and other signals. Google Google Help
• Importantly, it has moved beyond simply calculating a conversion rate for each keyword: Google says it uses query-level data across the account, which is generally more sophisticated than keyword-level bidding. Google Help
• For a freelancer managing several client accounts, this is usually the first system I'd test before paying for a third-party bid-management platform.
• Adlogic — closest match to your specific description

• Adlogic explicitly says it re-prices every keyword every 15 minutes using predictive machine learning. It reports a conversion rate/value and the resulting bid for each keyword. Adlogic Adlogic
• Its agency product is specifically designed for people managing multiple client accounts, with the positioning of keeping the freelancer/agency's client relationship while automating bidding. Adlogic
• This is probably the most interesting option if you specifically want keyword-level predictive bidding rather than Google's more opaque auction-time Smart Bidding system.
• AdsOptimizer Lab — broader automation

• It has a keyword/search-term engine that scores queries by intent and conversion probability, alongside bid management, budget allocation and other optimization functions. AdsOptimizer Lab
• More of an agency optimization platform than a pure bidding engine.
• RunPPC — freelancer-friendly, but less specifically about predictive bidding

• Designed for freelancers/agencies managing local-business accounts. It reviews campaigns, identifies wasted spend and proposes bid/keyword changes for approval. RunPPC
• I'd consider it if you want an AI account-management assistant, rather than a dedicated predictive bidding engine.

One important distinction

If your mental model is:

Keyword → predicted conversion probability → optimal CPC bid

then Adlogic appears closest to that model.

If you're happy with:

Search auction → predicted conversion probability/value + many contextual signals → bid

then Google Smart Bidding is actually more advanced. Google explicitly says it predicts conversion rate at auction time and uses query-level and cross-signal data rather than relying solely on the keyword's historical conversion rate. Google Google Help

For a freelancer, I'd rank them:

1. Google Smart Bidding — best starting point
2. Adlogic — most interesting if you want explicit keyword-level predictive bid control
3. AdsOptimizer Lab — broader agency automation
4. RunPPC — easiest if you want an AI assistant around the whole account

If you're actually looking for a tool where you can export keyword-level predicted CVR, calculate an expected CPA/ROAS, and then programmatically set bids across dozens of client accounts, that's a narrower category—and I can identify the best 5–10 tools for that use case.

If you mean PPC software that uses machine learning to predict conversion probability and adjust bids at the keyword (or auction) level, these are the main options for freelancers and PPC consultants:

For a freelance PPC manager, I’d usually shortlist:

1. Small/medium client accounts: Google Smart Bidding + strong conversion tracking

• Cheapest and often the most powerful because it has Google’s auction data. Google Help
• 10–50 client accounts where you need management efficiency: Optmyzr or Adalysis

• Better for audits, rules, reporting, and keeping human control. Adalysis Pearl Lemon
• High-spend accounts where marginal gains matter: Adlogic-style predictive bidding tools

• More focused on continuous keyword repricing rather than just recommendations. Adlogic

A note: modern Google Ads systems generally do not optimise purely at the keyword level anymore. Google’s Smart Bidding predicts conversion probability at the auction/query level, using the keyword as only one input. Google Help

If you’re a freelancer looking for a tool you can resell as part of a PPC service, the shortlist changes (agency-friendly pricing, white-label reporting, client access, etc.).

For PPC freelancers, the software you’re looking for is usually called AI bid management, predictive bidding, or conversion-probability optimization software. The best fit depends on whether you manage Google Ads, Microsoft Ads, Amazon PPC, or many client accounts.

Here are the strongest options:

If your goal is specifically:

“Predict conversion probability for each keyword and adjust bids automatically”

My shortlist would be:

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding (Target CPA / Target ROAS)

• Best algorithmic engine available because it has auction-time data.
• Works best when accounts have enough conversion volume. Google
• Adlogic

• Closer to a “keyword-level predictive bid engine” where each keyword can have its own model and bid adjustments. Adlogic
• Optmyzr + scripts/rules

• Better if you want transparency and control across many client accounts.

For a freelance PPC consultant managing 5–50 client accounts, I’d usually combine:

• Google Ads Smart Bidding for the actual auction decisions
• Optmyzr/Adalysis for auditing, reporting, and optimization workflows
• Custom scripts or data warehouse models if you want your own conversion-probability scoring

One thing to note: true keyword-level prediction is becoming less common in Google Search because Google increasingly optimizes at the search-query and auction level, not just the keyword level. Google

If you mean building your own PPC optimization SaaS/tool for freelancers, the answer changes — you’d likely want a model stack (conversion prediction + bid optimizer + Google Ads API integration).

If you mean PPC software that uses machine learning to predict conversion probability and adjust bids (ideally at keyword/search-term level), these are the main options freelancers and PPC agencies use:

For a PPC freelancer, the practical shortlist is:

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding (Target CPA / Target ROAS)

• Best starting point because it is native, free, and uses Google's own auction data.
• It does not simply set a fixed bid per keyword; it predicts conversion probability for each auction and adjusts bids accordingly. Google Help
• Optmyzr + Google Smart Bidding

• Good if you manage 10–100 client accounts and need automation, alerts, scripts, and reporting.
• Adlogic

• More specialized if you specifically want an external system that continuously reprices keyword bids using predictive models. Adlogic

If you specifically want keyword-level bid recommendations based on predicted CVR, look for features called:

• Predictive bidding
• Conversion probability modeling
• Machine learning bid optimization
• Portfolio bidding
• Value-based bidding
• Expected conversion rate (eCVR)
• Expected conversion value (eCV)

One caveat: modern Google Ads systems increasingly optimize at the auction/search-query level rather than only the keyword level, because a single keyword can match many different searches with different conversion probabilities. Google Help Google Help

For a solo PPC freelancer, I would usually choose:

• 1–20 accounts: Google Smart Bidding + Optmyzr
• 20–100+ accounts: Optmyzr/Adalysis-style workflow + scripts + Smart Bidding
• High-spend clients ($50k+/month): consider predictive bid platforms like Adlogic or enterprise tools

For a PPC freelancer looking for bid optimization based on predicted conversion probability at the keyword (or search-term) level, the best options depend on whether you manage Google Ads, Microsoft Ads, Amazon PPC, or multiple clients.

Best PPC bid optimization software

If you specifically mean "predict conversion probability per keyword"

Look for tools with these capabilities:

• Conversion rate prediction (estimated probability a click converts)
• Bayesian modeling / machine learning for low-volume keywords
• Keyword-level bid recommendations
• Search-term-level modeling (often better than keyword-only because one keyword can match many queries)
• Profit/CPA/ROAS optimization instead of just clicks

Google's own Smart Bidding is usually the strongest baseline because it predicts conversion likelihood using auction-time signals rather than relying only on historical keyword averages. Google Help

Freelancer-friendly stack

A practical setup:

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding

• Use Target CPA or Target ROAS for most mature accounts.
• Let Google's auction-time model handle micro-adjustments. Google Services
• Optmyzr or Adalysis

• Use for audits, anomaly detection, scripts, and finding missed opportunities. Optmyzr Help Center Reddit
• Custom modeling (for high-value clients)

• Export Google Ads search-term data.
• Build a model predicting: - conversion probability
• expected conversion value
• allowable CPC
• Push recommendations back through Google Ads scripts/API.

If your goal is a freelancer tool that automatically says “keyword X has a 12.4% predicted conversion rate, raise bid from $2.10 → $3.05”, the closest fits are specialized bid-management platforms like Adlogic or agency tools such as Optmyzr, while Google Smart Bidding does the deepest auction-time prediction. Adlogic Optmyzr Help Center

I can also give you a comparison of PPC AI bid tools by price, client-account limits, and automation level for freelancers.

For PPC freelancers, the software you’re looking for is usually called predictive bid management, AI bid optimization, or machine-learning PPC automation. These tools estimate conversion probability (or expected conversion value) at the keyword/search-query level and adjust bids to hit CPA, ROAS, or profit goals. Google Support Google Services

Some strong options:

If your specific requirement is:

“Give me an optimal CPC bid for every keyword based on predicted conversion rate”

Look at:

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding (Target CPA / Target ROAS) — best if you have enough conversion data. It predicts conversion likelihood at auction time rather than relying only on static keyword bids. Google Support
2. Optmyzr + custom scripts — better if you want freelancer-level control, client reporting, and explainable bid changes. Optmyzr Help Center
3. Adalysis / agency tools — useful if you manage many accounts and need scalable monitoring.

For a solo PPC freelancer, a practical stack:

• Google Ads Smart Bidding → automated bid decisions
• Optmyzr → audits, recommendations, client management
• Looker Studio → reporting dashboards
• Google Ads scripts or API → custom keyword-level bid logic

One caveat: modern systems increasingly optimize at the search query + auction level, not just the keyword level, because the same keyword can produce very different conversion rates depending on the user, device, location, and context. Google Support

If you mean Google Search PPC specifically (not Amazon PPC, Meta ads, or Microsoft Ads), I can narrow this down to the best tools for a freelance PPC manager with 5–50 client accounts.

If you mean software that predicts conversion probability and uses that prediction to decide how aggressively to bid, there are a few categories worth considering.

Best options for a PPC freelancer

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — best overall / lowest cost

• Native to Google Ads and included with the platform.
• Predicts conversion likelihood at auction time, using query-level historical data plus signals such as device, location, time, browser, OS, etc.
• Strategies such as Target CPA and Maximize Conversions use those predictions to determine bids. Google Help Google Help
• Important distinction: it isn't really giving you a static "keyword conversion probability" and then setting a keyword bid. It models the individual auction/search context, which is generally more sophisticated.
• optmyzr.com — best freelancer/agency control layer

• Particularly interesting if you manage many client accounts and want automation while retaining more control than simply turning on Smart Bidding.
• Its Conversion Grabber, for example, identifies converting keywords that are losing impression share and recommends bid increases where additional exposure is likely to generate conversions. Optmyzr Help Center
• I'd consider this if your workflow is "I want software to tell me which keywords deserve more/less aggressive bids" rather than completely handing bidding to Google.
• AdsOptimizer Lab — interesting AI/automation option

• It specifically describes a keyword/search-term engine that scores queries by intent and conversion probability, then uses that information for optimization. AdsOptimizer Lab
• Worth investigating if you want an agency-oriented automated layer, although I'd validate its methodology and results on a small client account before relying on it.

If you literally want keyword-level predicted CVR → bid

That's a somewhat different requirement from modern Google Smart Bidding.

A system could essentially calculate:

expected value of click = predicted conversion probability × conversion value

and then derive an economically justified CPC/bid from that, subject to budget, margin, competition, and position constraints.

There is academic work specifically on keyword-level Bayesian bid optimization that does exactly this kind of modeling from impressions, clicks, conversions and cost. DOI

But for Google Search today, I'd generally prefer auction-time Smart Bidding over manually maintaining a predicted-CVR-per-keyword model, because Google says its system uses search-query-level data and contextual signals precisely to overcome the sparse-data problem at individual keyword level. Google Help

My recommendation for a freelancer

If you're asking because you're looking for a tool that actually exposes a predicted conversion probability for each keyword (e.g., "keyword X = 8.4% predicted CVR") and then recommends the optimal CPC, tell me that—that narrows the field considerably, and I can find the closest 5–10 products and compare their pricing/API/white-label capabilities for freelancers.

If by “predicted conversion probability at the keyword level” you mean software that estimates P(convert | keyword/search context) and then uses that prediction to decide how aggressively to bid, there are a few different categories.

Best options for a PPC freelancer

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding — best overall

• Target CPA / Target ROAS / Maximize Conversions use Google's ML to predict conversion likelihood and set bids at auction time.
• Importantly, it isn't really “one predicted CVR per keyword.” Google now uses search-query-level data plus contextual signals such as device, location, time, browser, etc. Google Support Google Support
• For most freelance-managed accounts, this is the strongest underlying bidding system because it has far more data than an independent freelancer's model usually can.
• optmyzr.com — best for freelancer-level automation/control

• Particularly useful if you're managing multiple client accounts and want rules layered on top of Google bidding.
• It can optimize manual CPC bids using keyword performance and other attributes, and can adjust Target CPA/ROAS when campaigns use automated bidding. Optmyzr Help Center Optmyzr Google Ads Optimization
• Its Rule Engine lets you create custom formulas, which is interesting if you specifically want to build your own predicted-CVR → bid logic. Optmyzr Help Center
• A custom ML bidding system — best if you literally want keyword-level predicted CVR

• If your requirement is something like:

keyword → predicted CVR → expected conversion value → optimal CPC

then I'd actually consider building a lightweight model rather than buying another PPC interface.

• You could train on historical keyword/search-term, device, geo, hour, match type, landing-page and conversion data, then use the predicted probability to generate bid recommendations.
• This gives you much more transparency than Google's Smart Bidding, but you need enough conversion data and careful handling of sparse keywords.

One important distinction

If you're specifically looking for software that says:

“Keyword A has a predicted 8.3% conversion probability, therefore bid $4.72; Keyword B has 2.1%, therefore bid $1.18”

Google Smart Bidding doesn't expose its system that way. It predicts conversion probability at the individual auction/search-query level, using many signals, and makes the bid internally. Google Support Google Support

So for a freelancer, I'd rank the approaches:

If you're asking because you're considering building or buying a tool specifically for PPC freelancers, I can also identify the 5–10 closest competitors and explain what gap still exists in the market.

If you mean software that predicts conversion likelihood and then uses that prediction to decide how aggressively to bid on individual keywords, there are a few categories worth separating.

Best fit for a PPC freelancer

Optmyzr is probably the closest off-the-shelf option I’d look at first.

• Its Bid to Target CPA (Keywords) strategy sets keyword bids using historical conversion data and progressively expands the lookback window from 7 to 90 days until enough conversion data is available. Optmyzr Help Center
• It also has Bid to Target ROAS (Keywords), which similarly operates at the keyword level. Optmyzr Help Center
• Its Conversion Grabber identifies converting keywords that are losing impression share and recommends bid increases where additional exposure is likely to produce incremental conversions. Optmyzr Help Center
• It can be layered on top of Google Smart Bidding rather than replacing it entirely. Optmyzr Google Ads Optimization

optmyzr.com

One important distinction

If by "predicted conversion probability at the keyword level" you specifically mean:

P(conversion | keyword, query, device, location, time, etc.) → calculate expected value → determine the optimal CPC

then Google Ads Smart Bidding is actually more sophisticated than most third-party keyword bid tools. Google says its system learns at the search-query level, incorporating auction-time signals such as device, location, time, browser, OS, and remarketing-list membership to predict conversion likelihood for each auction. Google Help

So I would think of the options like this:

If you're a freelancer managing multiple client accounts, I'd lean toward Optmyzr + Google Smart Bidding, rather than trying to build a separate conversion-probability model. Optmyzr gives you account-level automation and keyword rules while Google handles the much harder auction-time prediction problem.

If what you're looking for is a tool that explicitly exposes a predicted conversion probability/score for each keyword and lets you bid directly from that score, that's a narrower requirement. I can identify the 3–5 closest products and compare their actual bidding algorithms, pricing, and suitability for freelancers.

For PPC freelancers looking for bid optimization based on predicted conversion probability at the keyword level, the strongest options are usually AI bid-management platforms or the native ad platforms’ own machine-learning bidding. The best fit depends on whether you manage Google Ads, Microsoft Ads, Amazon PPC, and how much control you want.

Best options

For a freelance PPC manager, I’d shortlist:

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding (usually the first choice)

Best when:

• You have enough conversion volume
• Tracking is clean
• Clients are on Google Search/Shopping

Strategies:

• Target CPA → optimize toward conversions
• Target ROAS → optimize toward conversion value
• Maximize Conversion Value → prioritize high-value conversions

Google’s system predicts conversion probability using many signals (device, location, time, query context, audiences, etc.) rather than relying only on the keyword bid. Google Help

2. Adlogic (more "keyword bid engine" style)

Better if your selling point is:

"I actively optimize every keyword bid using predictive models."

It is designed around continuous keyword bid adjustments rather than only campaign-level automation. Adlogic

3. Optmyzr (best freelancer workflow tool)

If you manage 10–50 client accounts, the biggest bottleneck is often not the algorithm but:

• finding wasted spend
• reporting
• rules
• audits
• scaling optimizations

A platform like Optmyzr can complement Google’s bidding rather than replace it.

What I would avoid

Be cautious with tools that claim:

• "AI bidding" but only change bids based on last 7/30 days CPA
• fixed rules like "increase bid 10% after 3 conversions"
• no conversion-value modeling
• no query-level learning

A true predictive system should estimate something like:

Expected value of a click = conversion probability × conversion value

and adjust bids around your target CPA/ROAS.

For a freelance PPC business, a practical stack is often:

• Google Ads Smart Bidding → algorithmic bidding
• Optmyzr → audits, rules, scaling, reporting
• Call tracking/offline conversion imports → improve prediction quality
• Your own scripts or dashboards → differentiation for clients

If you mean building a PPC freelancer tool/SaaS that predicts keyword conversion probability, the architecture is different (ML model + bid simulator + Google Ads API integration).

For a freelance PPC business, a practical stack is often:

• Google Ads Smart Bidding → algorithmic bidding
• Optmyzr → audits, rules, scaling, reporting
• Call tracking/offline conversion imports → improve prediction quality
• Your own scripts or dashboards → differentiation for clients

If you mean building a PPC freelancer tool/SaaS that predicts keyword conversion probability, the architecture is different (ML model + bid simulator + Google Ads API integration).

If you mean software that predicts conversion likelihood and uses that prediction to decide how aggressively to bid on individual keywords/searches, there are a few different categories.

Best fits for a PPC freelancer

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — best overall

• This is actually the closest match to what you're describing.
• Google predicts the probability that a click will convert using the search query plus contextual signals such as device, location, time, browser, OS, etc., and sets a bid at auction time. Google Help Google Help
• Importantly, it isn't really a simple "keyword → predicted conversion probability → bid" model. Google says its models learn at the query level across the account, which helps when individual keywords don't have enough conversion data. Google Help
• For freelance account management, I'd generally let Google handle the auction-level prediction rather than trying to recreate it manually.
• optmyzr.com — best third-party layer for freelancers/agencies

• Particularly useful if you're managing multiple client accounts.
• Its Conversion Grabber identifies converting keywords that are losing impression share because of ad rank and recommends bid increases where additional exposure is likely to generate more conversions. Optmyzr Help Center
• It also supports granular manual-CPC optimization, rules, keyword optimization, and automation across Google Ads and Microsoft Ads. Optmyzr Google Ads Optimization
• However, it is not simply replacing Google's Smart Bidding model with its own keyword-level conversion-probability model.

The distinction that matters

If your desired workflow is:

Keyword → predict P(conversion | keyword, context) → calculate expected value → determine optimal CPC bid

then Google Smart Bidding is the strongest off-the-shelf answer, but its prediction happens at the auction/query/context level, not merely at keyword level. Google Help

If instead you want:

Export keyword-level data → build your own conversion-probability model → generate recommended bids → push those bids into client accounts

then you're looking for a custom ML bidding system, with Optmyzr potentially serving as the automation/control layer.

For a freelancer managing, say, 10–50 client accounts, I'd probably use Google Smart Bidding + Optmyzr, rather than trying to build a prediction model yourself. Optmyzr can provide the account-level automation and diagnostics while Google handles the much harder auction-time probability modeling. Optmyzr Google Ads Optimization Optmyzr Help Center

If you tell me whether you mean Google Ads, Microsoft Ads, or both, I can give you a shortlist of the 5–10 tools that most closely match keyword-level predictive bidding, including pricing and which ones are practical for a solo PPC freelancer.

If you mean software that predicts conversion probability and uses that prediction to determine PPC bids, there are a few different tiers.

Best options for a PPC freelancer

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — probably the best default. Google’s system predicts conversion likelihood at the auction/query level, using signals such as search query, device, location, time, browser, OS, and ad characteristics. It then sets bids in real time rather than simply assigning one fixed bid to each keyword. Google Help Google Help

support.google.com

• Adlogic — interesting if you specifically want a third-party predictive bidding platform that actually reprices individual keywords. It says it builds a predictive model from the account's history and recalculates keyword bids every 15 minutes based on live auction pricing. Adlogic

adlogicengine.com

Important distinction

If your requirement is literally:

keyword → predicted conversion probability → calculate optimal CPC → automatically update keyword bid

then Adlogic is closer to that architecture than Google Smart Bidding.

Google has moved beyond simple keyword-level modeling: its Smart Bidding system explicitly says it learns at the search-query level, because one keyword can generate queries with very different conversion probabilities. Google

For example:

"plumber" keyword
→ “emergency plumber near me” → high predicted CVR
→ “plumber salary” → low predicted CVR

Google can bid differently on those individual auctions even though they came from the same keyword.

For a freelancer managing multiple clients

I'd rank the approaches:

If you're building your own PPC optimization workflow, I can also give you the specific software/API stack for doing predicted CVR → expected conversion value → optimal CPC bid across multiple client accounts.

If you mean software that predicts conversion likelihood and then uses that prediction to determine PPC bids at the keyword/search level, there are a few different categories.

Best fit: Google Ads Smart Bidding

For a freelancer managing Google Ads, Google Ads Smart Bidding is probably the closest match to what you're describing. Google says its models predict the probability that a click will convert using auction-time contextual signals, then use that prediction to set the bid. It operates at the individual auction/search-query level, rather than simply assigning one static bid to each keyword. Google Help Google Help

support.google.com

Best freelancer/agency management layer: Optmyzr

Optmyzr is worth looking at if you're managing multiple client accounts and want more control than Google's native automation.

It can:

• Set keyword bids based on historical conversion/CPA or ROAS data.
• Run automated keyword-level bid strategies through its Rule Engine.
• Adjust bids based on device, location, audience, etc.
• Layer optimizations on top of Google Smart Bidding.
• Automate strategies across multiple accounts. Optmyzr Help Center Optmyzr Google Ads Optimization

Its "Bid to Target CPA (Keywords)" strategy is particularly relevant: it uses historical conversion data and progressively expands the lookback window until it has enough data to make a bid decision. Optmyzr Help Center

optmyzr.com

An important distinction

If you're specifically looking for software where you can see something like:

Keyword A → predicted CVR = 8.7% → calculate expected CPA → recommended CPC bid

that's not quite how Google Smart Bidding works. Google's system uses a much richer auction-time model with contextual signals and query-level data; it deliberately doesn't rely solely on the keyword's historical conversion rate. Google Help

Optmyzr gets closer to the freelancer-controlled, keyword-level optimization model, particularly if you want rules you can inspect, modify, and apply across client accounts.

If you're actually looking to build your own PPC bidding system as a freelancer—e.g. upload keyword/click/conversion history, predict P(convert | keyword), and automatically calculate the next CPC bid—I can also point you toward the software/API stack that would be best for that.

For PPC freelancers looking for software that optimizes bids using predicted conversion probability (CVR) at the keyword/search-query level, the main options fall into two groups: native Google AI bidding and third-party bid management platforms.

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding (best baseline)

ads.google.com

• Uses machine learning to predict the likelihood of a conversion and adjust bids automatically at auction time. Google Help
• Uses signals beyond the keyword itself, including search query, device, location, time, browser, and other contextual factors. Google Help
• Strategies: - Target CPA — bids toward a desired cost per conversion.
• Target ROAS — bids based on predicted conversion value.
• Maximize Conversions — finds auctions with higher conversion probability. Google Help

Best for: Most freelancers managing Google Ads accounts with enough conversion volume.

2. Optmyzr

optmyzr.com

Features useful for freelancers/agencies:

• Automated bid rules and scripts.
• Budget pacing.
• Search-term and keyword optimization.
• Account-level PPC workflows.

Best for: Freelancers managing many client accounts who want automation plus control.

3. Adalysis

adalysis.com

Useful capabilities:

• PPC testing and optimization.
• Bid monitoring.
• Keyword-level performance analysis.
• Automated alerts.

Best for: Data-driven freelancers who want recommendations rather than a fully automated black box.

4. Adlogic

adlogicengine.com

Adlogic specifically focuses on predictive bid management:

• Uses machine learning to adjust keyword bids continuously.
• Evaluates keyword-level performance rather than only campaign averages. Adlogic

Best for: Lead-generation PPC accounts where small bid changes can materially affect CPA.

5. SA360 (enterprise)

marketingplatform.google.com

• Advanced automated bidding across large advertiser portfolios.
• Useful for agencies managing large spend across multiple engines.

Best for: Enterprise clients, not usually solo freelancers.

What I’d choose as a PPC freelancer

A key point: most modern systems no longer optimize a fixed keyword bid only. Google’s own system, for example, models conversion likelihood at the auction/query level rather than relying only on a keyword’s historical conversion rate. Google Help

If you mean a tool that shows the predicted conversion probability score for every keyword and lets a freelancer manually adjust bids based on that score, that is a narrower category than automated Smart Bidding.

If you mean software that predicts conversion probability and uses that prediction to determine bids, the strongest option is actually Google Ads Smart Bidding, rather than a third-party PPC tool.

Best options for a PPC freelancer

Google Ads Smart Bidding is the closest match to what you're describing. Google says its algorithms predict the conversion probability of a click for each auction, using contextual signals such as query, device, location, time, browser, etc., and then calculate the bid accordingly. Google Help Google Help

One important distinction: it isn't really "one conversion probability per keyword." Google now models conversion likelihood at the auction/query/context level and can use query-level data to compensate when an individual keyword doesn't have much history. Google Help

If you want a freelancer-oriented tool

I'd look at optmyzr.com.

It can sit on top of Google Smart Bidding and gives you much more granular automation: keyword bids, search-term rules, CPA/ROAS adjustments, budget controls, and custom rules. Its Conversion Grabber, for example, identifies converting keywords losing impression share from ad rank and recommends selective bid increases. Optmyzr Help Center Optmyzr Google Ads Optimization

So I'd choose:

• 1–5 clients / normal Google Ads accounts: Google Smart Bidding.
• 5–30+ client accounts and you want automation/control: Optmyzr + Google Smart Bidding.
• You specifically want your own predicted P(conversion | keyword, query, device, etc.) model: build a custom system using the Google Ads API rather than relying on an off-the-shelf PPC platform.

If what you're actually looking for is a tool where you upload historical keyword/click/conversion data and it outputs an optimal CPC bid for every keyword based on predicted CVR, that's a narrower category. I can identify the best 5–10 tools that do exactly that and compare their pricing/API access.

Google Ads Smart Bidding is the closest match to what you're describing. Google says its algorithms predict the conversion probability of a click for each auction, using contextual signals such as query, device, location, time, browser, etc., and then calculate the bid accordingly. support.google.com support.google.com

One important distinction: it isn't really "one conversion probability per keyword." Google now models conversion likelihood at the auction/query/context level and can use query-level data to compensate when an individual keyword doesn't have much history.

If you want a freelancer-oriented tool

If by “predicted conversion probability at the keyword level” you mean software that models how likely a click/search is to convert and uses that prediction to determine bids, there are a few different categories.

Best options for a PPC freelancer

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — best overall. Google’s own system predicts conversion probability for each auction using contextual and query-level signals, then sets an auction-time bid. Importantly, it isn't really limited to the keyword level; Google says it learns at the search-query level and combines signals such as device, location, time, browser, OS, and more. Google Help Google Help

ads.google.com

• Optmyzr — best if you want freelancer-friendly control across multiple client accounts. It can automate manual keyword bidding and has strategies such as Bid to Target CPA (Keywords), which uses historical conversion data and progressively expands the lookback period when conversion volume is insufficient. It also has Conversion Grabber, which identifies converting keywords that are losing impression share and recommends bid increases. Optmyzr Help Center Optmyzr Help Center

optmyzr.com

• Optmyzr + Google Smart Bidding — probably the strongest practical setup for an independent PPC consultant. You can let Google's ML handle auction-level conversion prediction while using Optmyzr for account-level automation, rules, audits, budget management, and adjustments to CPA/ROAS targets. Optmyzr explicitly supports layering its automation on top of Google Smart Bidding. Optmyzr Google Ads Optimization Optmyzr Google Ads Optimization

One important distinction

If you're specifically looking for a tool that does:

keyword → predicted conversion probability → calculate optimal CPC bid → push bid to Google Ads

rather than Google's:

search query + user/context signals → predicted conversion probability → auction-time bid

then Optmyzr's keyword-level strategies are closer to what you're describing, although its published documentation describes them primarily as historical-performance/target-CPA optimization rather than exposing a standalone machine-learning conversion-probability score. Optmyzr Help Center

For most freelancers, I'd choose Google Smart Bidding for the actual bid prediction + Optmyzr for managing and automating multiple client accounts.

If you tell me whether you mean Google Ads Search, Microsoft Ads, or both, I can also give you the 3–5 tools that most closely match a “predicted CVR × keyword CPC” bidding model, including newer AI/PPC platforms.

If you mean software that estimates the likelihood of a conversion and uses that signal to influence bids at the keyword/search-term level, there are a few categories—but Optmyzr is probably the closest fit for a PPC freelancer.

Best fits

Optmyzr is especially interesting for freelancers because it explicitly markets itself toward one-person PPC consultancies and supports multi-account management, automation, keyword optimization, and bid management. www.optmyzr.com

One important distinction, though: I wouldn't describe Optmyzr as simply "predict conversion probability per keyword and bid directly from that probability." Its current tooling includes things like Conversion Grabber, which identifies converting keywords that are losing impression share and recommends selective bid increases, plus First Page Bridger and custom Rule Engine strategies. help.optmyzr.com

If what you're specifically looking for is:

Keyword → predicted P(conversion) → expected conversion value → optimal CPC bid

that's a narrower requirement. Google Smart Bidding actually gets closer to the ML concept, because Google's auction-time system predicts conversion likelihood using many contextual signals—but you don't get a simple exposed "keyword conversion probability" that you can directly manipulate.

If you're a freelancer, I'd choose:

1. Google Smart Bidding + Optmyzr — probably the strongest practical combination.
Google handles auction-time prediction/bidding; Optmyzr gives you the human-controlled optimization layer for keywords, budgets, targets, rules, and diagnostics.

2. Optmyzr alone — if you want one platform for managing several clients and automating repetitive optimization. Its freelancer offering is specifically designed around this use case. www.optmyzr.com

3. A custom ML bidding system — if by "predicted conversion probability at keyword level" you literally mean you want to build/use your own probability model and determine bids from it. That's more flexible than the SaaS tools, but considerably more work.

If you tell me whether you're managing Google Ads Search, Microsoft Ads, or both, and roughly how many client accounts/month, I can narrow this down to the 3–5 tools that actually fit a freelancer's workflow and budget.

Yes. If by “predicted conversion probability at the keyword level” you mean software that estimates how likely a click/search is to convert and then uses that prediction to adjust bids, there are a few options worth looking at.

Best fits for a freelance PPC manager

The important distinction

If you specifically want:

Keyword → predicted CVR → economically optimal CPC bid

that's somewhat different from Google's Smart Bidding.

Google's system is actually more granular: it predicts conversion likelihood for individual auctions/impressions, incorporating signals such as device, location, time and context, rather than simply assigning one static predicted CVR to each keyword. services.google.com

For a freelancer, I'd therefore look at BiddingLab first if you want a third-party system that explicitly exposes conversion-probability-driven bidding. Its documentation says the system lowers CPC for unprofitable keywords and only enters auctions when predicted conversion probability meets its cost-benefit criteria. www.biddinglab.comservices.google.com

Scaletrics is interesting if you want something more like a complete PPC optimization layer: it analyzes individual search terms, identifies high-conversion queries, promotes them to keyword candidates, and has smart bid management tied to CPA/value targets. www.scaletrics.com

If you're asking because you want to build or offer this as a service to PPC clients, I can also compare the available tools specifically on API access, Google Ads integration, keyword-level CVR prediction, bid-control granularity, pricing, and suitability for a solo freelancer.

If you mean software that predicts conversion probability and then uses that prediction to decide what to bid, the strongest options are:

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding — my first choice

Google's own system predicts the likelihood that a particular click will convert and uses that prediction, together with contextual signals, to set a bid at auction time. It isn't really a simple "conversion probability per keyword" model: Google says it learns at the search-query level and incorporates signals such as device, location, time, browser, OS, and the actual query. support.google.comsupport.google.com

So if your goal is:

"Bid more when the probability of conversion is high, bid less when it's low."

Smart Bidding already does this—and at a much finer level than keyword-level bidding.

Google Ads Smart Bidding

2. Optmyzr — probably the best third-party option for PPC freelancers

Optmyzr has explicit keyword-level bid strategies. For example, its Bid to Target CPA (Keywords) strategy uses historical conversion data and progressively expands the lookback window from 7 to 90 days until enough conversion data exists. help.optmyzr.com

Its Conversion Grabber is particularly relevant: it identifies converting keywords that are losing impression share because of ad rank and recommends bid increases for keywords expected to generate incremental conversions. help.optmyzr.com

Optmyzr

3. If you specifically want your own conversion-probability model

This is where I'd consider building a lightweight system around the Google Ads API.

For example:

keyword/query → predicted P(conversion) → expected CPA/value → recommended CPC

You could train the model using each client's historical clicks/conversions, then output recommended keyword bids. This gives you something Google/Optmyzr don't: a transparent probability score you can show clients, such as:

• Keyword A — 8.4% predicted CVR → increase bid 18%
• Keyword B — 2.1% predicted CVR → decrease bid 12%
• Keyword C — 0.4% predicted CVR → pause/reduce exposure

The important distinction is that Google's Smart Bidding is generally better at the actual auction-level prediction, whereas a freelancer-built keyword model can be better for explainability, reporting, and cross-client workflow. Google explicitly says Smart Bidding operates at auction time rather than simply maintaining one bid per keyword. support.google.comsupport.google.com

My recommendation for a PPC freelancer: start with Google Smart Bidding + Optmyzr rather than building ML yourself. If what you're really looking for is a tool that gives you a predicted conversion probability for every keyword and automatically converts that into CPC recommendations, that's a narrower requirement—and I can identify the 5–10 tools that specifically do that.

If you mean Google Ads PPC freelancing (managing client search campaigns), the software category you’re looking for is usually called AI bid management / predictive bidding / Smart Bidding optimization. These tools estimate conversion probability (often using keyword, query, audience, device, time, and historical conversion signals) and adjust bids toward a CPA or ROAS goal. Google

Good options for PPC freelancers:

For a solo PPC freelancer, I’d usually shortlist:

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding + strong conversion tracking

• Best starting point because it already uses auction-time prediction. Google
• Use strategies like Target CPA or Target ROAS once enough conversion data exists.
• Optmyzr

• Better if you manage many client accounts and need automation, scripts, alerts, and reporting.
• Adalysis

• Better if you want deeper PPC analysis rather than a pure autopilot bidder. Adalysis
• Adlogic

• Worth testing if you specifically want a tool claiming per-keyword predictive bid adjustments rather than Google’s auction-time approach. Adlogic

A note: modern Google Ads automation often does not optimize only at the keyword level anymore; it can optimize at the search query + auction level, using context signals such as device, location, time, and user intent. Google So a tool that says “keyword-level conversion probability” may be narrower than Google’s own system.

If you’re a freelancer managing 5–50 client accounts, I’d compare tools differently than if you’re managing ecommerce accounts, lead-gen, or local service PPC.

If you mean Google/Bing PPC software that predicts conversion probability and uses that prediction to determine bids, there are a few different categories.

Best fit for a PPC freelancer

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding — probably the strongest option

• Uses machine learning to predict conversion likelihood at auction time, rather than simply assigning one static bid to each keyword.
• Considers the actual search query plus device, location, time, browser, OS, ad characteristics, and other signals.
• Supports Target CPA, Target ROAS, and Maximize Conversions/Conversion Value.
• This is especially attractive for freelancers because you can manage multiple client accounts without buying another bid-management platform. support.google.combusiness.google.com
• Importantly, Google's current system is actually more granular than keyword-level bidding: it learns from search-query and auction-level data, so a single keyword can receive different bids depending on the auction context. support.google.combusiness.google.com

Google Ads Smart Bidding documentation

2. AdsOptimizer Lab — interesting if you're managing many clients
This is a third-party agency-oriented platform. Its keyword/search-term engine says it scores queries by intent and conversion probability, while its automation handles bid management, budget allocation, negatives, etc. adsoptimizerlab.com

AdsOptimizer Lab

I'd investigate this one if your goal is specifically "I freelance and need one optimization layer across lots of client accounts."

3. Build your own Bayesian bid model — if you want true keyword-level control
There is actually academic work directly matching what you're describing: Bayesian models can estimate keyword performance under uncertainty and then use online/bandit optimization to select bids. link.springer.com

The basic concept is:

Predicted CVR × conversion value × target efficiency → optimal CPC

The hard part is estimating CVR reliably when a keyword has only a handful of clicks/conversions. Bayesian smoothing/hierarchical models are useful here because they can "borrow" information from related keywords instead of overreacting to tiny samples.

One important distinction

If what you're looking for is software that literally produces a predicted CVR for every keyword and then automatically calculates a CPC bid from that CVR, that's different from Google Smart Bidding.

Google's system doesn't really work as:

keyword → predicted CVR → keyword bid

It works more like:

auction/query + dozens of contextual signals → predicted conversion probability → auction-time bid

Google explicitly says its models learn at the query level rather than simply the keyword level. support.google.combusiness.google.com

So if you're a freelancer looking for a transparent, keyword-level bid optimizer where you can see something like:

then Google Smart Bidding isn't quite that product. A third-party optimizer or your own model is closer to what you're describing.

If you tell me whether you're managing Google Ads, Microsoft Ads, or both, and roughly how many client accounts, I can narrow this down to the 3–5 tools that are actually worth considering for a freelancer.

Yes. If by that you mean software that estimates a keyword/search term’s probability of converting and uses that estimate to change bids, there are a few categories worth looking at.

Best fits for a freelance PPC manager

The important distinction is that Google's system is actually more sophisticated than simple keyword-level CVR bidding. Smart Bidding predicts conversion likelihood at the individual auction/search-query level, incorporating things such as device, location, time, audience, actual query and ad characteristics. support.google.com

If you're specifically looking for the workflow:

keyword → predicted CVR → target CPA/value → calculated CPC bid → automatically update bids

then AdsOptimizer Lab is unusually close to what you're describing. It says its keyword/search-term engine scores queries by conversion probability and its optimization system handles bid management. adsoptimizerlab.com

But there's a big caveat

If you're a freelancer managing client accounts, I wouldn't necessarily replace Google Smart Bidding with a keyword-level third-party bidder.

Google explains that its Smart Bidding models can borrow information across keywords/ad groups and, importantly, learn from search-query-level performance across the account. That helps with low-volume keywords where a raw keyword CVR would be statistically unreliable. support.google.com

For example:

• Keyword A: 10 clicks, 1 conversion → observed CVR = 10%
• Keyword B: 100 clicks, 5 conversions → observed CVR = 5%

A naïve system might bid twice as aggressively on A. That's dangerous because 1 conversion isn't enough evidence to conclude A is actually twice as good.

A better system uses predicted CVR / Bayesian or ML estimates, incorporating the broader account's data and contextual signals.

If you're building this as a freelancer

I'd shortlist:

1. Google Smart Bidding — best if you want the platform itself doing auction-level prediction.

2. Optmyzr — best if you want a freelancer/agency control layer around Google Ads, including automation and bid-management workflows.

3. AdsOptimizer Lab — worth investigating if you specifically want an external system that talks in terms of predicted conversion probability and automated optimization.

4. A custom Google Ads API system — potentially the most interesting if you're managing enough accounts to justify it. You can calculate your own smoothed/predicted CVR and generate bid recommendations, while letting Google handle auction-time signals.

One thing I'd be careful about: "keyword-level predicted CVR" is not necessarily the optimal architecture anymore. Google's own documentation explicitly says query-level modeling can outperform treating the keyword as the unit of prediction, particularly with broad/phrase match. support.google.com

If you're asking because you're looking for a tool you can use across 10–50 freelance client accounts, I can compare Optmyzr vs Adalysis vs PPC Protect vs AdsOptimizer Lab vs building your own, including pricing, API access, MCC support, and whether each one actually changes bids automatically.

Yes. If by “predicted conversion probability at the keyword level” you mean software that uses historical conversion behavior to estimate which keywords are more likely to convert, then adjusts bids accordingly, there are a few good options.

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding — probably the best answer

Google Ads Smart Bidding

Google's system predicts conversion rate/value for each auction, using search-query performance plus signals such as device, location, time, browser, OS, language, and combinations of those signals. It then uses those predictions to determine the bid. support.google.comsupport.google.comsupport.marinsoftware.com

One important distinction: it's not really “keyword-level bidding” anymore. Google explicitly says Smart Bidding learns at the search-query level across the account, rather than simply assigning a conversion rate to each keyword. That's actually more granular than keyword-level modeling. support.google.comsupport.google.comsupport.marinsoftware.com

For a freelancer managing client accounts, I'd generally use Target CPA / Target ROAS / Maximize Conversions / Maximize Conversion Value rather than trying to reproduce Google's model yourself. support.google.com

2. Optmyzr — best if you want freelancer-level control

Optmyzr

Optmyzr sits on top of Google Ads and provides additional automation and optimization. Its Conversion Grabber, for example, identifies converting keywords that are losing impression share because of ad rank and recommends selective bid increases. help.optmyzr.com

It also has automated bidding tools, Rule Engine workflows, and value-based bidding tools. help.optmyzr.com

I'd pick Optmyzr if you're a PPC freelancer who wants:

• multiple client accounts
• automated rules
• bid recommendations
• keyword-level visibility
• the ability to override/augment Google's automation
• less spreadsheet/API work

3. Marin Software — particularly interesting for your specific description

Marin Software

Marin's algorithmic bidding explicitly calculates bids for keywords, ad groups, product groups, and placements. Its system uses recent conversion rate and statistical thresholds, and it uses Bayesian blending to deal with low-volume keywords. support.marinsoftware.com

That makes Marin conceptually closer to what you described than Google's system if you're specifically thinking:

keyword → estimated conversion probability → optimal CPC bid

What I'd recommend for a freelancer

If you're asking because you're looking for software to manage PPC clients, I'd rank them:

Google Smart Bidding → Optmyzr → Marin

But if you're asking because you want to build/offer a proprietary bidding system, that's a different answer. A useful architecture would be:

keyword/search query → predicted P(conversion) → expected conversion value → allowable CPC → bid

with Bayesian smoothing/hierarchical modeling for low-volume keywords.

If that's what you're investigating, I can also compare the actual algorithms/features of 5–10 PPC bid-management platforms and identify which ones genuinely do predictive conversion modeling versus merely applying rules to historical CPA.

If you mean software that predicts conversion probability and uses that prediction to decide what CPC bid a keyword/auction deserves, there are a few good options—but there’s an important distinction:

Best options for a PPC freelancer

The biggest surprise is that Google Ads itself is probably closest to your requirement. Smart Bidding doesn't simply look at historical keyword conversion rate. Google says its models learn primarily at the search-query/auction level and incorporate device, location, time, audience, browser, OS, ad creative and other signals to predict conversion likelihood. support.google.comservices.google.com

So if your idea is:

Keyword → predicted CVR → calculate economically optimal CPC → automatically change bids

Google's native system is already doing a more sophisticated version:

Auction/query + contextual signals → predicted conversion probability/value → optimal auction-time bid

Google explicitly describes its system as using predicted conversion rate, conversion value, budget and market information to determine the CPC bid for an auction. services.google.com

If you specifically want keyword-level predicted CVR

That's a slightly different use case.

Google's Keyword Planner can provide forecasted conversion rate and conversions for keywords, but those are planning forecasts rather than a persistent, freelancer-controlled bidding model. business.google.com

For a freelancer managing many client accounts, I'd look at Optmyzr first if you want a tool sitting on top of Google Ads, and Google Smart Bidding first if you're comfortable letting Google's model do the actual bidding.

If what you're actually looking for is a tool where you upload historical keyword data, it predicts CVR for every keyword—including low-volume keywords—and then recommends a specific CPC bid for each one, that's a narrower category. I can find the 3–5 products that most closely match that exact workflow and compare their pricing/API/automation capabilities.

Yes. If by “using predicted conversion probability at the keyword level” you mean a tool that estimates how likely each keyword/search opportunity is to convert and then uses that estimate to determine the economically appropriate bid, there are a few good options—but there’s an important distinction.

Best options for a PPC freelancer

Optmyzr is probably the closest off-the-shelf fit. Its tools can identify converting keywords that are constrained by rank and recommend bid increases, while its Rule Engine lets you build your own formulas and automated bidding logic. help.optmyzr.com

Adalysis is another strong freelancer-oriented option. Its keyword bid suggestions incorporate factors such as Quality Score, lost impression share, Google position estimates, search volume, historical performance, and your stated goal (including target CPA/ROAS). adalysis.com

But there's a key technical caveat

If you specifically want:

Predicted P(conversion | keyword) → calculate expected conversion value → determine optimal CPC bid

then Google Ads Smart Bidding is actually more sophisticated than most third-party keyword-bid tools, but it doesn't work the way you're describing.

Google says Smart Bidding predicts conversion likelihood at the auction/query level, incorporating contextual signals such as device, location, time, browser, OS, etc. It deliberately uses query-level information across the account rather than relying solely on each keyword's historical conversion rate. support.google.com

So, conceptually:

Traditional freelancer workflow

keyword history → CPA/ROAS → bid adjustment

Smart Bidding

auction/query + context + historical data → predicted conversion likelihood → auction-time bid

Custom ML workflow

keyword/query + context + first-party data → your predicted P(conv) → economic value → bid

That last approach is what I'd investigate if you're looking for a freelancer-focused bidding product that explicitly exposes predicted conversion probability rather than hiding the model inside an automated bid strategy.

If you tell me whether you mean Google Search manual CPC, Microsoft Ads, or a custom tool/API, I can narrow this down to the 3–5 products that actually do probability-based bidding rather than merely providing bid recommendations.

If you mean software that predicts conversion probability and uses that prediction to determine PPC bids, the strongest option today is actually Google Ads Smart Bidding.

• Google Ads Smart Bidding — uses ML to predict conversion likelihood for each auction, incorporating search-query performance plus contextual signals such as device, location, time, browser, etc. It then adjusts the bid at auction time. Importantly, it isn't really a keyword-level bidding model anymore; Google says it learns at the search-query level across the account, which is generally more granular than keyword-level data. support.google.comsupport.google.com

Google Ads Smart Bidding

For a freelancer managing multiple client accounts, I'd distinguish between:

If you specifically want keyword-level predicted CVR

That's a slightly different product than Smart Bidding. You could build a model like:

Predicted CVR(keyword, query, device, geo, etc.) → expected conversions/click → economically optimal CPC

and use it to recommend or push bids through the Google Ads API.

This can be attractive for freelancers because you can incorporate client-specific economics—lead quality, close rate, revenue per customer, margins, etc.—rather than optimizing merely for Google's reported conversion.

Google itself recommends giving Smart Bidding enough conversion data because its models can borrow information across queries/accounts when individual keywords don't have enough data. support.google.com

If you're looking for a specific SaaS product that already does the predicted-CVR → keyword-bid workflow, rather than building it yourself, I can research the current PPC bid-management market and identify the closest 5–10 tools for freelancers.

For PPC freelancers looking for software that optimizes bids using predicted conversion probability (ideally at keyword/search-term level), the best options depend on whether you manage Google Ads, Microsoft Ads, Amazon PPC, or multiple clients.

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding — best native option

Google Ads

• Uses machine learning to predict the likelihood of a conversion and adjusts bids automatically at auction time. support.google.com
• Uses signals beyond the keyword itself: search query, device, location, time, browser, audience, and other contextual factors. support.google.com
• Strategies:
  • Target CPA
  • Target ROAS
  • Maximize Conversions
  • Maximize Conversion Value

Best for: freelancers managing accounts with enough conversion volume (often 30–50+ conversions/month per campaign is a practical starting point).

2. Optmyzr — best freelancer/agency workflow tool

Optmyzr

Good for freelancers who need:

• automated bid rules
• PPC audits
• optimization recommendations
• client reporting
• scaling across many accounts

It is less of a pure “predict conversion probability per keyword” engine and more of a PPC automation layer that works alongside Google’s bidding algorithms.

Best for: freelancers with 5–50 client accounts who want efficiency and control.

3. Skai — enterprise-grade predictive bidding

Skai

Features:

• AI-driven bid optimization
• cross-channel management
• predictive models
• budget allocation

Best for: agencies managing large spend accounts.

4. Marin Software — advanced portfolio bidding

Marin Software

Useful for:

• large keyword portfolios
• automated bidding rules
• multi-channel paid search management

Best for: larger PPC operations.

5. BiddingLab — keyword-focused automated bidding

BiddingLab

Claims:

• AI-supported real-time bid management
• keyword management
• conversion prediction features
• automated CPC adjustments based on profitability signals www.biddinglab.com

Best for: search-focused freelancers who want a dedicated bidding tool.

6. Adalysis — optimization assistant

Adalysis

Strong for:

• bid adjustment analysis
• keyword insights
• testing
• alerts

It is more analytics/recommendation driven than a fully autonomous predictive bidder. adalysis.com

A practical freelancer stack

A key point: modern Google Ads does not really optimize only at the keyword level anymore. Its strongest models predict conversion probability at the auction/search-query level and adjust bids dynamically rather than simply assigning one bid per keyword. support.google.com

If you mean a tool that a solo PPC freelancer can white-label or use to manage client accounts automatically, the shortlist changes (Optmyzr, Shape.io, TrueClicks, etc.).

If you mean software that estimates a keyword’s likelihood of converting and then uses that probability to inform the CPC bid, there are a few different categories. For a PPC freelancer, I’d look at these:

1. Optmyzr — best fit for freelancers/agencies

This is probably the closest match to what you're describing. Optmyzr lets you automate keyword-level bid optimization, including rules that set bids toward a target CPA or ROAS using historical conversion data. Its current tooling also includes Conversion Grabber, which identifies converting keywords losing impression share and recommends selective bid increases. help.optmyzr.com

The important distinction: Optmyzr doesn't appear to market this as simply “predicted conversion probability × CPC.” Rather, it combines historical performance, CPA/ROAS targets, impression-share opportunity, and Google Smart Bidding/automation. www.optmyzr.com

2. Google Ads Smart Bidding — strongest actual ML option

If your clients have enough conversion data, Google's native Smart Bidding is hard to beat. It predicts conversion likelihood at the auction level and adjusts bids based on signals such as device, location, time, audience, query/context, etc.

The catch for a freelancer is that you don't get a simple, transparent “keyword X has a 7.3% predicted conversion probability, therefore bid $Y” interface. Google handles the prediction and auction-time bid internally.

3. Optmyzr + your own probability model — best if you specifically want keyword-level probabilities

If your goal is actually:

Predicted P(conversion | keyword) → expected conversion value → economically optimal CPC

then I'd seriously consider building a lightweight model yourself and using Optmyzr/Google Ads API to execute the resulting bid changes.

For example:

Expected value per click = P(conversion | keyword) × value per conversion

Then your maximum economically justified CPC can be derived from your target margin/CPA/ROAS.

This is particularly attractive for freelancers because you can pool historical data across client accounts only where appropriate and permitted, while still calibrating the model separately for each account.

My ranking for a PPC freelancer

If you're specifically looking for a commercial product that exposes a predicted conversion probability for each keyword and then automatically calculates the bid from it, that's a narrower requirement. I wouldn't assume Optmyzr does exactly that—their documented keyword bidding uses historical conversion data/target CPA or ROAS rather than exposing a raw probability score. help.optmyzr.com

If you tell me whether you're optimizing Google Search, Microsoft Ads, or both, I can identify the tools that most closely match “predicted keyword conversion probability → optimal CPC” and compare their pricing/API capabilities.

If you mean software that predicts the probability that a click will convert and uses that prediction to determine bids, the strongest options are:

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding — best overall
   • Uses machine learning to predict conversion probability at auction time, using query-level historical data plus signals such as device, location, time, browser, language, and time of day. support.google.comhelp.optmyzr.com
   • Supports Target CPA, Target ROAS, Maximize Conversions, and Maximize Conversion Value.
   • You can use portfolio bid strategies across multiple campaigns, which is particularly useful for freelancers managing several client campaigns. support.google.com
   • Important distinction: it isn't really "one predicted CVR per keyword." Google explicitly models at the query/auction level, which is more granular than keyword-level bidding. support.google.com

2. Optmyzr — best for freelancer/operator control
   • Useful as a management and optimization layer on top of Google Ads.
   • It can analyze performance and make data-driven bid recommendations, including ML-based recommendations and custom rules. help.optmyzr.com
   • However, if you're specifically looking for a tool that independently predicts conversion probability for every keyword and calculates an optimal CPC, Optmyzr isn't as direct a match as Google's own Smart Bidding.

If your requirement is specifically:

keyword → predicted conversion probability → expected value → recommended CPC/bid

then I'd look at Google Ads API + your own model rather than relying on a third-party PPC platform.

For example, you could estimate:

Expected conversion value per click = P(conversion | keyword/context) × conversion value

and then derive a bid from your target CPA/ROAS, while incorporating CPC, competition, impression share, and uncertainty.

That's especially interesting for a freelancer managing many smaller accounts, because Google's Smart Bidding can suffer when an individual campaign has sparse conversion data; Google itself says its query-level modeling helps address that data scarcity. support.google.com

If you tell me whether you want (a) an off-the-shelf SaaS, (b) software you can use across multiple client accounts, or (c) a tool/API where you can actually see the predicted conversion probability, I can narrow this down to the best 3–5 options.

If you mean software that estimates the probability/value of a conversion for each keyword and then uses that prediction to determine bids, there are a few categories worth separating.

Best options for a PPC freelancer

Optmyzr is probably the closest fit for a freelancer who wants control. It can make keyword-level bid recommendations, including Target CPA/ROAS strategies, expensive-keyword bid reductions, and its Conversion Grabber identifies converting keywords that are losing impression share and recommends bid increases. help.optmyzr.com

The important distinction, though, is that Optmyzr isn't simply taking a model's predicted P(conversion | keyword) and calculating the optimal CPC from it. If that's specifically what you're looking for, I'd look at Google Smart Bidding or Adspert rather than ordinary PPC rule engines.

If you're building your own bidding system

The model you're describing is roughly:

Expected conversion value = predicted conversion probability × conversion value

and then choosing the CPC bid based on expected value, auction economics, target CPA/ROAS, and the marginal probability of conversion.

For example, if your model predicts:

• Keyword A: 8% conversion probability
• Keyword B: 2%
• Keyword C: 0.4%

you'd want the system to bid substantially more aggressively on A provided the additional CPC still produces an acceptable expected CPA/ROAS.

For a freelancer managing relatively small accounts, I'd generally choose Google Smart Bidding first, and use Optmyzr on top of it when you need cross-account monitoring, rules, reporting, keyword-level interventions, and more control. Optmyzr specifically supports layering optimization tools around Smart Bidding rather than requiring you to replace it. www.optmyzr.com

If you tell me whether you're looking for (a) a tool to use for your clients or (b) software/API to build your own keyword-level predictive bidding model, I can narrow this down to the 3–5 best choices and compare pricing, API access, and how their bidding actually works.

If by “predicted conversion probability at the keyword level” you mean software that models how likely a click/search is to convert and then uses that prediction to adjust PPC bids, there are a few categories worth looking at.

The important distinction: Google Ads itself is now very strong here. Smart Bidding predicts conversion likelihood at the auction/query level, rather than simply assigning one conversion probability to each keyword, and uses contextual signals such as device, location, time, browser, query, etc. support.google.comsupport.google.com

Best options for a PPC freelancer

1. Google Ads Smart Bidding — best default

• Target CPA
• Target ROAS
• Maximize conversions
• Maximize conversion value
• Uses ML predictions and auction-time signals.
• Particularly useful when you have enough conversion data.
• Can operate across multiple campaigns via portfolio strategies. support.google.com

For most freelance accounts, I'd start here rather than adding another bidding platform.

2. Google Ads + your own prediction layer — best if you specifically want keyword-level modeling

If you want something more like:

Keyword → predicted CVR → expected CPA/value → recommended CPC

you can build a lightweight system using Google Ads data exported into Python/BigQuery/Sheets, train a model on historical clicks/conversions, and then use the predictions to recommend or automate bid changes.

This is particularly interesting for freelancers managing many smaller accounts where Google's automated bidding may not have much account-specific data.

3. Third-party PPC bid-management platforms

These can make sense when you're managing many accounts and need centralized automation, rules, reporting, and cross-platform bidding. However, I'd distinguish them from a true keyword-level predicted-CVR model: many modern platforms ultimately leverage the underlying ad platforms' auction-time bidding rather than independently predicting every keyword's conversion probability.

One important correction

If you're specifically looking for “keyword-level predicted conversion probability,” Google actually argues that query-level modeling is better than keyword-level modeling. A single keyword can match many different search queries, each with different conversion likelihoods. Google's Smart Bidding therefore learns from query-level data and uses it across the account. support.google.comsupport.google.com

So for a freelancer, I'd think about the stack like this:

If you're asking because you want a tool specifically for freelancers that takes historical keyword data and outputs a predicted CVR + optimal bid for each keyword, that's a narrower category—and I can identify the actual software products that do that rather than just general Google Smart Bidding.